No, I don't want to discuss about Betfair as a exchange company and its monopoly in the business. I've got couple of emails lately from people who actually do trading for a longer time (months) and still are unable to make a constantly profit from it.
Trading betfair horses is very tricky in meaning that you can be in 80% of predictions right, but you didn't get matched and you miss the opportunity to earn money. Although you were right you made no profit. On the other hand, in 20% when your predictions are wrong, you will get matched surely and you lost your money. Therefore, no surprise when you are at the end of the day in red numbers. How to prevent from this kind of situation?
Firstly; you cant be greedy. When you expect a big swing you should put your money at the best available odds ASAP to get matched immediately. Don't wait to be matched, you will miss the opportunity because most of traders jump in front of you as they are probably not so greedy as you.
Secondly; if you get matched and you are still in open position expecting long swing, try to exit from it laying/backing different odds during the swing. Don't put all backed or layed money on one odd when you think the price should go, the movement wont be probably as strong as you think and you don't exit right.
And the last one; when you are wrong, even only in 20% of your entry positions, your losses can be turn into a big ones very quickly and you will end with loss, bad feeling, less confidence and so on....in the end. So cut your losses quickly. I usually allow 2-4 ticks against me, depending on market.
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It seems I can't fulfil my target (profit 500€/day) at the end of this year, because of the lack of horses races. I extend the period till the 15th Feb.
Good luck
Mark
well, if everybody who is betting on betfair makes profit, the betfair "system" doesn`t work. the points you make are definately right but not everybody is able to realize constant profit. it requires skill and experience to become a good trader, i think just a few months are not enough.
ReplyDeletebtw would you add me to your blogroll?
thx and nice greetz
Surely these 3 points are not enough to be perfect in trading. I just wanted to explain why people who can predict movements, make losses. It's all about entry and exit points.
ReplyDeleteok mate, just add me on your blog and send me email with your url.
Mark
Hi Mark.
ReplyDeleteWhat kind of PC setup do you use? One or multiscreen? gaming pc mouse with hmmm 3600 dpi?
thanks
After 3 months trading with Betfair on football, I am absolutely sure they are NOT fair at all. The software platform is biased and I can prove this. In other words, the odds change not according to the market bets, but in line with their own interests. I have taken various screen shots of these variations, and concluded that, although it's impossible to prove that the bets are not what they claim to be, numbers are surely manipulated by force of the program itself. Therefore, Betfair works a little like a video poker program in which the odds are always in favour of the house and against the player.
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